Dublin North-West constituency profile: Dessie Ellis vote may drop but it’s hard to see seat in danger

Outgoing TDs: Paul McAuliffe (FF), Róisín Shortall (SD-RET), Dessie Ellis (SF)
Who are the candidates running in Dublin North-West?
Dublin North-West returning officer website
Fine Gael, which struggled to find a candidate, will field former TD Noel Rock whose standing and record mean it goes from a potential also-ran to being right in contention for a seat.
The constituency has a track record stretching back to the 1980s of never electing a TD that hasn’t represented it at local level before, which may count against Rory Hearne of the Social Democrats, who is hoping to hold Róisín Shortall’s seat. However, her vote, built up over political generations, may scatter beyond the Social Democrats.
Against that, he has a reasonably high profile and is nothing if not energetic.
Sinn Féin reverts to a two-candidate strategy after Dessie Ellis’s 44 per cent vote share in 2020. That will be down, but it’s hard to see his seat in danger. Fianna Fáil’s Paul McAuliffe and Rock have history, prevailing over each other in 2020 and 2016 respectively – is it possible both could be elected alongside Ellis and squeeze out the second Sinn Féin candidate, Cathleen Carney Boud, and Hearne?
Far-right candidate Gavin Pepper took a seat in the locals, but national elections are another matter. There will be more votes for his brand of politics than ever before, that’s for sure. But it’s difficult to make the case for him in a three seater, even if every anti-immigration first preference goes his way.
It’s largely “as you were” in Dublin North-West with the constituency untouched by the Electoral Commission except for the addition of three districts from Dublin Bay North and the loss of some territories to Fingal West and Dublin West. Now more condensed geographically, it takes in a range of middle-class and working-class areas, including parts of Drumcondra, Beaumont, Finglas, Whitehall and Ballymun.
Possible outcome: Sinn Féin (1), Fianna Fáil (1), Fine Gael (1)